The current crisis will affect most areas of our lives. It will also affect German-Polish relations. It may turn out to be a big challenge for them, but, like any change, it may also have a creative element in some areas. This is not the time for crystal-ball gazing, what, when and how exactly something will happen in the Polish-German relations. There are more questions than answers. But in order to be able to look for solutions to the problems that will arise in the future - the one that is closer and a little bit farther away - it is possible to name them today, even if only by calling their respective areas.
A force in the Community or an escape into nationalism?
On the one hand, the coronavirus crisis has highlighted European nationalism. The closure of borders, blaming each other for too slow mutual support, the lack of coordination between EU Member States (especially initially) will remain in the memory. But on the other hand, helping to organise the return of citizens from other countries, receiving patients from neighbouring countries for treatment in hospitals, sending masks or medical support to countries most in need are signs of solidarity. EU Member States have had the opportunity to see what it means to leave such an important area as health care in the hands of nation states, and how Community management works in times of crisis in those areas where the EU has competence. What lessons will be learned from this in the future? To what extent will this experience of urgent fund transfers and new expenditure affect the ongoing negotiations on the future EU multi-annual budget? Will Germany, once again seeing the system of connected vessels like the countries of the European Union, be ready to put more money into the EU? Will the EU institutions be reformed faster so that they can make decisions more efficiently? Will Warsaw and Berlin be on one side in discussions on these issues?
Nourishment for fake news - how much will mutual perceptions change?
The example of presenting the actions of the European Union - or rather its shortcomings - perfectly illustrates how the situation caused by the virus has allowed false information to spread. The pace of events, lack of detailed knowledge and fear caused by the epidemic did not encourage reliable journalism, politicians easily took advantage of this situation to build their image against the actions of other countries or the EU, but also trolls did not idle. As a result, the false mutual German-Polish image and stereotypes had an ideal breeding ground to spread in the media. Negative images will remain, deepening nationalism, fears or dislike. How much will they change the Polish-German perception? How soon will the damaged trust and image of the other society return to the state before the epidemic? And how will this affect other areas of relations?
The economy as the basis of the relationship - the end of the upward trend?
The economic crisis in both countries is an obvious consequence of the current stagnation resulting from the state of the epidemic. Worse situation in Germany, lower demand, interruptions in production and company bankruptcies will affect the Polish economy. How big will the deterioration of the situation in the economic dimension of Polish-German relations be? Will the link between the Polish and German economies increase or decrease and in what period? To what extent will the interrupted supply chains be rebuilt quickly and efficiently, and to what extent will they cease to exist? How many comapnies that have so far been active in these relations will disappear at all? How many people who have formed German-Polish relations will lose their jobs and go to completely different areas?
The problems will be mainly for medium and small enterprises, which are the basis of economic relations between Poland and Germany. To what extent will this affect mutual trade? In comparison to other bilateral relations, will Poland fall on the list of German trade partners?
On the other hand, large corporations - and there are many such German ones on the Polish market - will probably invest less, perhaps they will abandon further development plans in Poland. What does this mean for the Polish labour market? How much will Polish subcontractors, service providers and customers suffer?
In recent years Polish companies have been investing more and more effectively in Germany, taking over companies that are bankrupt. Will this trend be stopped? Or maybe the other way round, some people will skillfully take advantage of the market situation, because the reluctance to give German companies into Chinese hands will increase even more?
Poles in Germany - to what extent will working and living on the other side of the Oder still be attractive?
The economy also includes thousands of Polish workers who regularly travelled to Germany and who now stay on the Polish side. This applies both to those who crossed the border every day - because they did not want to give in to the two-week quarantine introduced by the Polish government - and to those who decided to return to their families in Poland during the epidemic. These were thousands of Polish workers, craftsmen, professionals, caretakers and cleaners who were temporarily on the western side of the Oder. On the German fields, on the other hand, there are no Poles who have come to help in agriculture since spring. How long will they stay in Polish homes? Will the current crisis generally discourage Poles from taking up seasonal and shuttle work in Germany?
Apart from these Polish workers who regularly travel to Germany, there is a large group of Poles and people of Polish origin living in Germany. Overnight, they find it very difficult to make direct contact with their families and friends in Poland. Until now, easy travel between the two countries was one of the important factors for many of them to decide to stay in the Federal Republic. Will the experience of the crisis discourage Poles from continuing to stay or settling in Germany? Or maybe on the contrary, will the actions of the German state in connection with the fight against the crisis encourage them to live on the western side of the Oder?
The borderland - how long will the border divide again?
One of the groups that feels the closure of the border between Poland and Germany the most strongly is the community living in the border area - accustomed to constant life on both sides of the Oder. Will the experience of the barrier strengthen the feeling of a German-Polish border community? How soon will border life return to normal? What solutions need to be implemented so that similar situations do not interfere with so many professional and private lives in the future? In case of a real epidemic crisis in this region, will the border municipalities be able to help each other and how will this affect future cooperation? To what extent will confidence in the central authorities in these areas decrease even further and will the feeling of bilateral local community increase?
Fewer contacts - less understanding?
However, the Polish-German contacts are not only due to politics and economic ties, but are created by thousands of Polish-German projects between cities, school municipalities, NGOs, universities and hundreds of other institutions. Currently, direct meetings have been suspended, it is not known when they will officially become possible again, but also when the participants will decide to renew their mutual visits. Will youth exchanges still be obvious in mutual relations? How long will the meeting houses remain empty? Will conferences and workshops move permanently to the network? And, due to technical challenges, will such remote meetings be possible mainly for people with a common language? What will happen to the hundreds of coordinators, moderators, interpreters, lecturers, language animators who have made German-Polish projects possible every day? Will they permanently move to other industries? How many NGOs will stop implementing German-Polish projects or suspend their activities at all? How many Polish students will not decide to hold an Erasmus in Germany, how many German students will not take up the challenge of spending a semester on the Vistula? And how many German volunteers will not strengthen the memorial sites?
Tourists will also be temperate to travel for a long time to come. How many Germans who would potentially visit Poland, delighted, as research shows, by the beautiful landscapes and hospitality of the hosts, will stay at home? Or maybe going to Poland will be safer because it will be easier to return home in case of danger?
And finally, how many Polish-German couples are facing a challenge to their relationship? And how will all this affect the mutual trust between Poles and Germans and the image of the neighbour?
New working methods – an opportunity or a threat?
Companies, NGOs, cultural centres, town hall officials are facing the challenge of changing their working methods if they want to continue to implement German-Polish projects in the coming months. For some it is not a problem. The transition to remote work, but also modern forms of communication, also with customers or recipients, motivate them to work, give a chance for the desired change. But for many it is a problem. There is a lack of courage, ideas and technology. How much new situation will force permanent changes in forms and types of German-Polish projects? What impact will this have on the mutual understanding of Poles and Germans and the effects of cooperation? Will the contact in the Internet allow to build similar trust to that during meetings in reality? Will numerous Polish-German networks grow even more thanks to this, because more people will have access to the offer on the Internet, or will the damage of exclusion of many groups be much greater?
Here, those who finance Polish-German projects also face a challenge. How quickly will they change the rules of support? Will their financial situation change significantly as a result of the crisis, so that there will be less money for this type of activities? And how will this affect the development of mutual relations at the level of societies?
There are many questions. The list above is incomplete, the problems described very generally, probably each of the Readers could add more than one question-anxiety to this list. This is good, because it remains open. And it shows one thing - how rich the network of Polish-German relations is and how it is worth taking care of.
dr Agnieszka Łada, Vice-Chairwoman of Supervisory Board of Krzyżowa Foundation
